블로그 이미지
영감, 약속, 만남, 여행... 고래의뇌

카테고리

분류 전체보기 (197)
시나몬 주머니 (108)
가로질러 사유하기 (88)
Total
Today
Yesterday


현상을 단순화시키거나 유목화시키는 것을 경계하고, 구체적인 결과와 경험을 바탕으로 의심하고 생각하라. 과거의 전문성에 생각을 가두지 말고 시행착오를 통해 새로운 지식을 습득하는 열린 자세를 갖춰라. 마지막으로 '행운'이 작용할 수 있는 여지를 남겨두어라. 블랙스완은 예측할 수 없는 형태로 찾아 온다.

"This building is inside the Platonic fold; life stands outside of it."  p.129


#1.
Categorizing always produces reduction in true complexity. It is a manifestation of the Black Swan generator, that unshakable Platonicity that I defined in the Prologue. Any reduction of the world around us can have explosive consequences since it rules out some sources of uncertainty; it drives us to a misunderstanding of the fabric of the world.  p.16

Our tendency to perceive - to impose - narrativity and causality are symptoms of the same disease - dimension reduction. Moreover, like causality, narrativity has a chronological dimension and leads to the perception of the flow of time. Causality makes time flow in a single dimension, and so does narrativity.  p.70

#2.
Dr. John thinks entirely within the box, the bos that was given to him; Fat Tony, almost entirely outside the box.  p.124

NTT (that is, me): Assume that a coin is fair, i.e., has an equal probability of coming up heads or tails when flipped. I flip it ninety-nine times and get heads each time. What are the odds of my getting tails on my next throw?
Dr. John: Trivial question. One half, of course, since you are assuming 50 percent odds for each and independence between draws.
NNT: What do you say, Tony?
Fat Tony: I'd say no more than 1 percent, of course.
NNT: Why so? I gave you the initial assumption of a fair coin, meaning that it was 50 percent either way.
Fat Tony: You are either full of crap or a pure sucker to buy that "50 percent" business. The coin gotta be loaded. It can't be fair game. (Translation: It is far more likely that your assumptions about the fairness are wrong than the coin delivering ninety-nine heads in ninety-nine throws.)
NNT: But Dr. John said 50 percent.
Fat Tony (whispering in my ear): I know these guys with the nerd examples from the bank days. They think way too slow. And they are too commoditized. You can take the, for a ride.

- The Ludic Fallacy, or the Uncertainty of the Nerd,  p.124

#3.
Before Western thinking drowned in its "scientific" mentality, what is arrogantly called Enlightenment, people prompted their brain to think - not compute. In a beautiful treatise now vanished from our consciousness, 'Dissertation on the search for truth', published in 1673, the polemist Simon Foucher exposed our psychological predilection for certainties. He teaches us the art of doubting, how to position ourselves between doubting and believing.  p.129

Now contemplate 'epistemic humility'. Think of someone heavily introspective, tortured by the awareness of his ignorance. He lacks the courage of the idiot, yet has the rare guts to say "I don't know." He dose not mind looking like a fool or, worse, an ignoramus. He hesitates, he will not commit, and he agonizes over the consequences of being wrong. He introspects, introspects, and introspects until he reaches physical and nervous exhaustion. This dose not necessarily mean that he lacks confidence, only that he holds his own knowledge to be suspect. I will call such a person an epistemocrat; the province where the laws are structured with his kind of human fallibility in mind I will call an epistemocracy.  p.190

#4.
Recall the empirics, those members of the Greek school of empirical medicine. They considered that you should be open-minded in your medical diagnoses to let luck play a role. By luck, a patient might be cured, say, by eating some food that accidentally turns out to be the cuew for his disease, so that the treatment can then be used on subsequent patients.  p.203

Indeed, the notion of 'asymmetric outcomes' is the central idea of this book.  p.210

This idea that in order to make a decision you need to focus on the consequences (which you can know) rather that the probability (which you can't know) is the central idea of encertainty.  p.211

#5.
Capitalism is, among other things, the revitalization of the world thanks to the opportunity to be lucky. Luck is the grand equalizer, because almost everyone can benefit from it. The socialist governments protected their monsters and, by doing so, killed potential new comers in the womb.  p.222

The key here is that the fractal has numerical or statistical measures that are preserved across scales - the ratio is the same, unlike the Gaussian.  p.260


- 'Black Swan', Nassim Nicholas Taleb, 2007, Random House



Posted by 고래의뇌
, |